Kyle walks through bizval’s Q1 2026 US M&A Report and what’s actually happening in the market – how valuations are being set, how deals are being financed, and why many owners misunderstand both. Ryan and Kyle talks about why multiples are a blunt instrument, why discounted cash flow is the real anchor, and how shifts in debt markets are changing cash-at-close outcomes. This conversation matters because owners are capital allocators, whether they realize it or not. Debt is more expensive. Buyers are structured differently. The owners who win the next five years will be the ones who understand how risk, cash flow, and valuation actually work together.
Takeaways:
- Multiples start negotiations, but cash flow risk determines real value.
- Discounted cash flow exposes risks that market comps ignore.
- Bank financing is retreating – private credit is filling the gap at a cost.
- Cash at closing should equal DCF, or the seller is still carrying risk.
- Reinvesting capital above your cost of capital is the only way to beat debasement.
Chapters